Contribution Analysis
Contribution analysis is a systematic approach to understanding an intervention's contribution to observed outcomes or impacts, acknowledging that multiple factors may be at play. It involves developing a theory of change, gathering evidence to support the theory, and ruling out alternative explanations.
Use this method when you need to assess the contribution of an intervention to a complex outcome, where other factors may also be contributing. It's particularly useful when you cannot use experimental designs.
Solves: Difficulty attributing outcomes to specific interventions, lack of understanding of the relative importance of different factors, uncertainty about the effectiveness of an intervention
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Step 1: Set the stage: Define the intervention and the outcome of interest. (15 min)
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Step 2: Develop a theory of change: Map out the causal pathway from the intervention to the outcome. (30 min)
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Step 3: Gather existing evidence: Collect data to support or refute the theory of change. (Ongoing)
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Step 4: Assemble and assess the contribution story: Synthesize the evidence and assess the strength of the contribution claim. (45 min)
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Step 5: Seek out additional evidence: Fill any gaps in the evidence base. (Ongoing)
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Step 6: Revise the contribution story: Refine the theory of change and the contribution claim based on the new evidence. (30 min)
- Involve stakeholders in the development of the theory of change.
- Be transparent about the limitations of the analysis.
- Use a contribution tracing approach to map out the causal pathways.
- Conduct a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to identify the combinations of factors that are associated with the outcome.