Hoop Test
A 'hoop test' establishes necessary criteria that a causal explanation must meet to remain viable. Failing the test eliminates the explanation, while passing provides support but doesn't prove it.
Use this test to rule out potential causal factors that don't meet essential requirements, such as temporal sequencing (cause before effect). It helps to narrow down the list of possible explanations.
Solves: Difficulty in eliminating implausible explanations, need for a clear and objective way to assess potential causal factors, risk of wasting time investigating dead ends.
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Step 1: Identify the necessary criteria that a causal explanation must meet. (15 minutes)
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Step 2: Gather evidence to determine whether each potential causal factor meets the criteria. (20 minutes)
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Step 3: Eliminate factors that fail to meet the criteria. (10 minutes)
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Step 4: Document the rationale for eliminating each factor. (5 minutes)
- Ensure that the necessary criteria are clearly defined and agreed upon.
- Be rigorous in applying the criteria and documenting the rationale for each decision.
- Be prepared to defend the decisions made during the hoop test.
- Use a scoring system to assess the extent to which each factor meets the criteria.
- Conduct a sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of different criteria on the results.