Navigating Uncertainty: Evidence-Based Decision Making
This method guides teams through a structured decision-making process when facing complex problems with uncertainty. By systematically gathering and appraising evidence from diverse sources, teams can arrive at well-informed and defensible solutions.
Use this method when a team needs to make a decision in a complex situation where there is no clear right answer and multiple perspectives need to be considered. It's particularly useful when you want to foster critical thinking and evidence-based reasoning.
Solves: Analysis paralysis, biased decision-making, lack of stakeholder consideration, relying on gut feeling instead of evidence.
- 1
Step 1: Introduction (10 mins) - Present a complex case from an expert's perspective. Allow participants to ask clarifying questions.
- 2
Step 2: Asking (30 mins) - In teams of four, translate the complex problem into relevant questions for four sources: expert opinions, research findings, local evidence, and stakeholder implications.
- 3
Step 3: Acquiring (30 mins) - For each source, define a search strategy to gather information. Compare individual search outcomes within the team.
- 4
Step 4: Appraising (30 mins) - Develop criteria for selecting information (e.g., societal impact, inclusiveness, costs, benefits). Critically evaluate the validity and relevance of gathered evidence.
- 5
Step 5: Aggregate (80 mins) - Aggregate the evidence to propose a decision, considering consequences for diverse stakeholders. Present the solution to other teams and engage in peer questioning about evidence gathering, appraisal, and aggregation.
- Emphasize the importance of diverse sources of evidence.
- Encourage critical evaluation of information sources.
- Ensure that stakeholder considerations are thoroughly addressed.
- Assign different sources of evidence to different team members.
- Use a pre-defined set of criteria for appraising evidence.
- Incorporate a debate or role-playing activity to explore different perspectives.