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Negative Programme Theory

Negative Programme Theory proactively identifies potential negative consequences of an intervention, challenging assumptions about positive outcomes and uncovering potential risks.

60-120 min3-12 peopleHard
When to Use

Use this method when you need to anticipate and mitigate potential unintended negative impacts of a program or policy.

How It Works

Solves: Overconfidence in positive outcomes; failure to anticipate potential negative consequences.

Step-by-Step Instructions
Follow these steps to facilitate this method
  1. 1

    Step 1: Review the program's logic model or theory of change (15 min).

  2. 2

    Step 2: Brainstorm potential negative impacts and unintended consequences (30 min).

  3. 3

    Step 3: Map out the causal pathways leading to these negative impacts (45 min).

  4. 4

    Step 4: Develop strategies to mitigate or prevent these negative impacts (30 min).

Facilitator Tips
  • Encourage participants to think critically and challenge assumptions.
  • Create a safe space for discussing potentially sensitive issues.
Variations
  • Use a risk assessment matrix to prioritize potential negative impacts.
  • Conduct a 'pre-mortem' exercise to simulate program failure.
Source: BetterEvaluation.orgLearn more