Process Tracing
Process tracing is a systematic method for investigating causal links between an intervention and observed outcomes. It involves gathering and analyzing evidence to assess the strength of support for a causal explanation, while also considering alternative explanations.
Use process tracing when you need to rigorously evaluate the impact of a program or policy, understand the mechanisms through which it achieved its effects, and identify potential unintended consequences.
Solves: Lack of clarity on how a program achieved its results, difficulty in attributing outcomes to specific interventions, need for a robust and defensible evaluation.
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Step 1: Define the outcome of interest and the intervention being evaluated. (15 minutes)
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Step 2: Develop a theory of change outlining the causal pathway linking the intervention to the outcome. (30 minutes)
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Step 3: Identify potential alternative explanations for the outcome. (15 minutes)
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Step 4: Gather evidence to test the causal pathway and alternative explanations, using the four types of causal tests (straw-in-the-wind, hoop, smoking gun, doubly-definitive). (45 minutes)
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Step 5: Analyze the evidence and draw conclusions about the strength of support for the causal explanation. (15 minutes)
- Be prepared to adapt the theory of change as new evidence emerges.
- Encourage participants to challenge assumptions and consider alternative explanations.
- Focus on gathering high-quality evidence from multiple sources.
- Use a simplified version of process tracing with fewer causal tests for less complex evaluations.
- Combine process tracing with other evaluation methods, such as contribution analysis or realist evaluation.