Straw-in-the-Wind Test
A 'straw-in-the-wind' test provides preliminary, weak support for a causal explanation. It doesn't prove anything definitively, but suggests areas worth exploring further in your analysis.
Use this test early in an investigation to identify potential causal factors that warrant deeper examination. It's helpful for generating hypotheses and narrowing the scope of inquiry.
Solves: Uncertainty about where to begin an investigation, lack of clear direction for data collection, need to prioritize areas for further analysis.
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Step 1: Identify potential causal factors that could have contributed to the outcome. (10 minutes)
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Step 2: Gather readily available evidence that might support or contradict each factor. (15 minutes)
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Step 3: Assess the strength of the evidence for each factor, noting that 'straw-in-the-wind' tests provide only weak support. (10 minutes)
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Step 4: Prioritize factors for further investigation based on the strength of the initial evidence. (10 minutes)
- Emphasize that the goal is to generate hypotheses, not to prove anything definitively.
- Encourage participants to consider a wide range of potential factors.
- Be aware of confirmation bias and actively seek out contradictory evidence.
- Use a survey or poll to gather initial impressions from a larger group.
- Conduct a quick literature review to identify potential causal factors.